{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "$id": "https://github.com/yurisyl/targetspace-bench/schemas/forecast.schema.json",
  "title": "TargetSpace Forecast",
  "description": "A single sealed, timestamped probabilistic forecast over a discrete answer space. Cross-field rules (probabilities sum to 1, answer-space coverage, time ordering) are enforced by pwm_bench.validation in addition to this schema.",
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": false,
  "required": [
    "forecast_id",
    "participant_id",
    "task_id",
    "task_type",
    "forecast_time",
    "horizon",
    "resolution_time",
    "evidence_cutoff_time",
    "evidence_tier",
    "protocol_version",
    "system_id",
    "answer_space",
    "probabilities"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "forecast_id": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Globally unique id for this forecast record (one per system per instance).",
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "participant_id": {
      "type": "string",
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "task_id": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Identifier of the benchmark instance (question). Shared by every system that forecasts it and by the resolving outcome record.",
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "task_type": {
      "type": "string",
      "enum": [
        "T1_next_contact",
        "T2_event_realization",
        "T3_response_behavior",
        "T4_attention_allocation",
        "T5_routine_deviation",
        "T6_commitment_follow_through"
      ]
    },
    "forecast_time": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "date-time"
    },
    "horizon": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Human-readable forecast horizon, e.g. '24h' or '7d'."
    },
    "resolution_time": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "date-time"
    },
    "evidence_cutoff_time": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "date-time",
      "description": "Latest timestamp of evidence the system was permitted to use. Must be <= forecast_time."
    },
    "evidence_tier": {
      "type": "string",
      "enum": [
        "L0",
        "L1",
        "L2",
        "L3",
        "L4",
        "L5"
      ]
    },
    "protocol_version": {
      "type": "string",
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "system_id": {
      "type": "string",
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "model_name": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "question": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "answer_space": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "type": "string"
      },
      "minItems": 2,
      "uniqueItems": true
    },
    "probabilities": {
      "type": "object",
      "description": "Map from each answer-space label to its probability in [0, 1]. Must cover the full answer space and sum to 1 within tolerance.",
      "additionalProperties": {
        "type": "number",
        "minimum": 0,
        "maximum": 1
      },
      "minProperties": 2
    },
    "metadata": {
      "type": "object"
    }
  }
}